Structured belief representations that combine numbers with natural language evidence, updated iteratively, outperform simply appending all retrieved information to context—and this structured approach is as valuable as having web search access.
BLF is an AI forecasting system that makes better predictions by maintaining a structured belief state combining probabilities with evidence summaries, updating them iteratively through tool use. It combines multiple independent forecasting trials and applies statistical calibration to avoid overconfident predictions, achieving top performance on forecasting benchmarks.